Espn Matchup Predictor How to Read It

Feb 11, 2022

ESPN staff

Super Basin LVI kicks off on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET, with the Cincinnati Bengals facing the Los Angeles Rams. The two teams each emerged from their conference's No. 4 seeds after winning their respective divisions. The matchup represents the first time since 2003 that participant teams enter with a combined zero or one Super Bowl titles, and the two quarterbacks -- Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow -- are each trying win their first Vince Lombardi Bays in their debut postseasons with their teams.

Our NFL team has you covered with everything you'd ever want to know for Rams-Bengals, including team previews, bold predictions and game picks. Nosotros as well provide betting advice from our ESPN Chalk experts, game-plan breakdowns from our analysts and in-depth statistics from our ESPN Stats & Information team. We look at the two quarterbacks, the caput coaches, cardinal rookies and some X factors likewise. We even preview the officiating, halftime show, injury written report and pinnacle Super Bowl MVP candidates.

It'due south all here in a handy ane-cease cheat sheet. Allow's swoop in, starting with an overview of the exciting matchup.

Previewing Rams vs. Bengals

When: Dominicus, Feb. 13 at 6:30 p.thou. ET
Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.
Tv set: NBC and ESPN Deportes
Depth charts: Rams | Bengals

When you retrieve of a archetype Super Basin matchup, y'all call back of two teams that take dominated their competition and run rampant through the playoffs. This is non that matchup. Both teams trailed in their corresponding conference championship games as the fourth quarter started. The Bengals needed a dramatic improvement and a spectacular cocky-destruction from the Chiefs to accelerate. The Rams blew a 24-indicate lead in the divisional round against the Bucs and needed 49ers safety Jaquiski Tartt to drop a souvenir-wrapped interception to spur their win over the 49ers.

And even so, these teams are here considering their stars did star things. Cooper Kupp and Ja'Marr Chase made huge catches to ready game-winning field goals. Jessie Bates III started the divisional-round game vs. the Titans with an interception and sent the Chiefs' offense to the sideline for the winter by creating another. Aaron Donald finished Jimmy Garoppolo's 49ers career with a pressure to force a pick. Joe Couch ducked through a sure sack to scramble for a critical first down. These teams have weapons on both sides of the ball that can singlehandedly determine games. Whichever team stops more of those stars wins this game. -- Pecker Barnwell, senior NFL author

Read more: Barnwell'south ultimate preview ... First look at the matchup ... How did Cincinnati build this unique roster ... Super Bowl returns to its birthplace ... FiveThirtyEight's guide ... Tales of Super Bowl nerves

What ESPN's Football game Power Alphabetize (FPI) says

ESPN'south FPI predicts a Rams victory in 66.3% of its simulations by an average of 5.6 points.
Our matchup rating grades Rams-Bengals as a 74.7 on a scale of 1 to 100.
The Rams were No. 6 in FPI this flavor, while the Bengals were No. 15.
In the preseason, the Rams had a ten.7% chance to make the Super Bowl per FPI, but the Bengals were looking at an 0.iv% chance.

Who wins the game?

We asked 76 experts to weigh in on who will win. The Rams were picked by 43 of them (56.6%), while the Bengals claimed 33 votes (43.4%).

Read more: ESPN staff predictions ... Madden's Super Bowl simulation ... Chris Berman's Swami Sez pick

What'south at stake

The Rams are trying to write the perfect catastrophe for their Hollywood script -- winning a Super Bowl in their habitation stadium subsequently making an all-in attempt. They're going for the second championship in franchise history (1999) and beginning since their 2016 movement back to Los Angeles, where they're yet trying to win over a lukewarm fan base of operations. It would be redemption for coach Sean McVay, who has lamented some of the mistakes he made in the team's loss to New England in Super Bowl LIII, and it would give Aaron Donald the one thing his résumé is missing. Given how much the Rams mortgaged their future to win this flavor, this volition likely be their all-time shot at a Super Bowl in a while. -- Brady Henderson, Seahawks reporter (roofing Rams)

Cincinnati has lost both previous trips to the Super Bowl -- losses to the 49ers in 1982 and 1989. If the Bengals can get some other upset win in the postseason, Cincinnati will join the 49ers as the just teams that went from worst in the NFL to Super Bowl champs in the bridge of three seasons, co-ordinate to the Elias Sports Agency. With a immature core that features quarterback Joe Burrow, Cincinnati should be playing for the Lombardi trophy on a regular basis. The Bengals are in their 54th flavour, which would exist the most by whatever franchise before winning its start championship in NFL history, per Elias. -- Ben Infant, Bengals reporter

Key stats to know

Squad stats: Rams | Bengals

Co-ordinate to ESPN metrics powered by NFL Next Gen Stats, the Rams ranked start in pass blitz win rate this flavour. The Bengals, meanwhile, ranked 30th in pass block win rate, and they were 25th or worst in pass block win charge per unit at every position (the five OL spots, TE and RB). And this will be the third Super Bowl matchup featuring an offense sacked 50-plus times during the regular season (Bengals) and a defence that racked up 50-plus sacks (Rams).
Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald (127, showtime) and Bengals defensive finish Trey Hendrickson (107, third) rank in the height iii in first pressures this season, including the playoffs. Hendrickson was 11th in pass rush win rate (21.nine%), and the Bengals' pressure rate fell from 33% with him on the field to 21% with him off it. Donald, though, had the second-highest pass rush win rate this season (26.vii%), despite being double-teamed at the sixth-highest charge per unit in the NFL (64%). In fact, Donald's 23.1% laissez passer rush win rate when being double-teamed was the aforementioned as sack leader T.J. Watt'due south overall marking. And when both Donald and edge rusher Von Miller are in the pass rush, the Rams accept a pass rush win charge per unit of 54.2% (including the playoffs).
Including the playoffs, receivers Cooper Kupp (Rams) and Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) are Nos. i and 2 in receiving yards this season, making it the first time the tiptop 2 in that category have met in the Super Bowl. They are likewise the only 2 receivers with at least ane,200 receiving yards outside the numbers in a season since 2007. Kupp led the NFL in receptions (145), yards (1,947) and TDs (16) this flavour. And at present he has a handful of single-flavor playoff records within accomplish. He needs 161 receiving yards to pass Larry Fitzgerald's 546, 7 catches to motility past Travis Kelce (31) and 3 TDs to tie Fitzgerald'southward 7. I area where he stood out this twelvemonth was downfield. He had more catches (28 vs. 25) and touchdowns (vii vs. five) on vertical routes this flavor than in his previous four seasons combined. So at that place is Chase, who had 81 catches for ane,455 yards and xiii TDs this season. His 279 receiving yards in the postseason are already the most amid rookies in a single playoffs, and he's the just rookie receiver to have multiple 100-one thousand receiving games in a playoffs. And like Kupp, he makes the vertical game a threat: Couch and Chase connected on 14 deep fade routes for 517 yards and six TDs -- all of which were the most by a duo over the by five seasons.

This is the 2d Super Bowl between teams that each finished in the bottom ten in rushing yards (2008). But Cincinnati running back Joe Mixon was tertiary in the league in rushing with 1,205 yards, and his 16 total touchdowns tied Pete Johnson for the second most in a season in franchise history.
Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Bengals condom Jessie Bates III leads the NFL in ball hawk rate (26%) since the start of last flavor, including the playoffs and among players who saw at least 75 targets.
Will Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey shadow Hunt? His highest shadow rates of the flavour have all come since Week 12 and take been against aristocracy receivers, but the just instance of Ramsey shadowing a role player more than 60% of the fourth dimension was the bounded round (Mike Evans, 69%).
Rams receiver Odell Beckham Jr. is coming off his only 100-yard receiving outing in his by 34 games. His 6 receiving touchdowns with Los Angeles, including the playoffs, are tied for the second most by a role player with a team that he joined during the season. He could tie Amari Cooper (Raiders, Cowboys) for the most if he catches one on Dominicus.
Since 2000, there have been nine trades involving multiple first-circular picks existence exchanged for a player, and the Rams account for 2 (Matthew Stafford and Ramsey). They are just the second team to brand the Super Bowl with such players (2002 Buccaneers with Keyshawn Johnson). Stafford was the 10th quarterback acquired for multiple first-rounders in the common draft era, and his three playoff wins are as many equally the other 9 had combined on that team. He's also the first to make the Super Bowl.

Bold predictions

Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald will have 2 sacks, and the Rams volition have four equally a team. There isn't a more than glaring mismatch in this game than Los Angeles' defensive forepart confronting the Bengals' offensive line. Donald was 2nd in the league in pass rush win rate during another typically dominant season, and the game's best defensive role player will at some point have over Super Bowl LVI to ensure he gets his elusive ring. -- Henderson

Bengals receiver Tyler Boyd will have seven catches for 60 yards and a touchdown. Cincinnati's slot receiver could get some favorable matchups with the Rams looking to contain the Bengals' outside receivers. Boyd also gives Couch a quick, undecayed choice, as Cincinnati volition effort to fence with the Rams' league-leading laissez passer rush. -- Infant

Bengals running dorsum Joe Mixon will take more than than 90 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Six consecutive Super Bowl champions accept had a running back post those numbers. Mixon'southward rushing totals have increased throughout the playoffs, and he has a reception for at least 15 yards in each of those games. He led his team in yards from scrimmage (115) in the AFC Championship Game, and in Sunday'south large game -- where the Bengals volition need to command the tempo to go on the Rams' criminal offense off the field -- Mixon could once more be the casher. -- Stephania Bell, NFL analyst

Bengals receiver Tee Higgins will be the Super Bowl MVP. He has a 53% catch rate and is averaging 7.9 yards per target against man-to-human coverage this season, but those numbers rocket to a 72% take hold of rate and 10.8 yards per target against Cover 2, Encompass 3 and Cover 4. Why is that relevant? Merely 2 defenses have been in zone more than often than Los Angeles. A star in the making, Higgins is targeted about as often as Chase and already has 2 big games during the playoffs. He's in position for another. -- Mike Clay, NFL annotator

The quarterback matchup

Matthew Stafford, Rams

Stafford, 34, spent 12 years in Detroit before joining the Rams via a trade terminal offseason, and he completed 67.2% of his throws for 4,886 yards and 41 touchdown passes in Yr 1 in L.A. And at present he can bring together Tom Brady (2020) and Trent Dilfer (2000) equally the only QBs to win the Super Bowl in their first seasons with a team. He could too become the tertiary quarterback to win his outset Super Bowl later at to the lowest degree 10 seasons (John Elway, Steve Immature). He excelled throwing vertically this season, averaging 8.iv air yards per attempt and connecting on 65 passes that went for at to the lowest degree 20 yards. Only he also struggled with turnovers. He could bring together Eli Manning equally the only regular-flavour interception leaders to win the Super Bowl, after he tied Trevor Lawrence with 17 this season. -- ESPN

Joe Burrow, Bengals

Couch, 25, has the take chances to get the first football player to exist drafted No. i overall and win a Heisman Trophy, a national championship and a Super Bowl -- and he can exercise it all in a three-year span. He led the NFL in completion percent (70.4%) and yards per attempt (eight.9) this season, making him the youngest to practise it in both categories in the same flavor. Plus, his 10% astray per centum was the everyman in the NFL over the past five seasons. And afterwards going 0-for-13 on passes thrown 30-plus yards downfield last season, Burrow has 13 such completions this season, including playoffs, and his seven TDs on those throws have him tied with Stafford for the nearly in the NFL. In all, Burrow threw for 4,611 yards, 34 touchdowns and fourteen interceptions this season, his start full NFL entrada later vehement his ACL during his 2020 rookie season. -- ESPN

Read/picket more: Burrow'south ever-increasing number of nicknames ... One-time Lions teammates living vicariously through Stafford ... Why Burrow plays QB like a linebacker ... Stafford giving the Rams a shot ... Joe Brrr and his swag ... Manning breaks downwardly Couch ... Manning breaks down Stafford

Who wins Super Bowl MVP?

Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Hunt. The Bengals are 6-ane when Hunt goes for more than than 100 yards this flavor. If the Bengals have the Super Bowl, Hunt will be the catalyst.

Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Burrow. The Rams' forepart won't make information technology easy, only Burrow is slippery plenty dorsum at that place to make plays confronting L.A.'s undermanned secondary and cap off a magical second season by delivering Cincinnati's beginning title.

Mina Kimes, NFL analyst: Kupp. I've got the Rams winning, which would make Stafford the more obvious option. Only I could also envision Stafford throwing a pick or 2 that keeps the game close. Kupp, the triple-crown receiver, will evangelize a testify-stopping performance that'll earn him the award.

Jason Reid, The Undefeated senior author: Donald. One of only three players in NFL history to be a three-time Defensive Player of the Year, Donald volition wreak havoc along the interior of the Bengals' offensive line and make things miserable for Burrow.

Seth Wickersham, NFL writer: Donald. The Rams will force the Bengals to be ane-dimensional, and Donald will tee off on Couch.

Of the 76 experts who weighed in, 30 picked Burrow to win Super Basin MVP. See all of our experts' picks.
Stafford is the betting favorite at +120 at Caesars Sportsbook. Burrow is at +220, while Kupp is +700 and Chase is +1200. Donald is +1800.

Within the game plan

I'yard keeping my eye on Aaron Donald and Von Miller against the Bengals' pass protection. With the Rams' zone-heavy defence, at that place are matchup advantages for both Donald and Miller, and defensive coordinator Raheem Morris can scheme defined one-on-ones or apply twists and stunts to heat up Burrow in the pocket. The Bengals can use the run game and first-downward play-action to counter the pass blitz, and we could see more seven-human being protection in dropback situations to go on Burrow make clean. Cincinnati will need answers against a Los Angeles front that can win on the edges and create interior disruption. -- Matt Bowen, NFL analyst

Rams Ten factor: Andrew Whitworth, OT

The Rams' 40-yr-old left tackle is coming off a stellar season and volition exist tasked with shutting downwardly Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson, who lines up almost exclusively on the law-breaking's left side. Hendrickson ranked ninth in pass rush win rate at edge and is past far Cincinnati's all-time laissez passer-rushing threat. Merely Whitworth ranked 3rd in pass block win rate at tackle this season and could potentially neutralize him. -- Seth Walder, analytics writer

Bengals X factor: Mike Hilton, CB

Considering Cooper Kupp lines up out wide just 31% of the fourth dimension when running a route, per NFL Next Gen Stats, Hilton figures to line up opposite the star receiver almost of the fourth dimension. Hilton's nearest defender numbers were a mixed bag, as he allowed an above-boilerplate yards per coverage snap but also held opponents to the second-everyman total expected points added among all slot corners (postseason included). Given whom he'll often be marking, information technology's hard not to assume a lot hinges on Hilton's play. -- Walder

Under-the-radar impact player: Greg Gaines, DT, Rams

It has been oft-discussed that the Bengals will need to slow down the Rams' pass rush. But while Donald and Miller are the household names, Gaines causes all sorts of ruckus and had his best career year every bit a pass-rusher this regular flavor. Spotter out. -- Field Yates, NFL annotator

Read more: Bowen'due south game plans for how each team can win ... Five stat trends to know ... Ranking the elevation 53 players in the Super Basin ... Can the Bengals dull Donald? ... Bengals not worried near offensive line's mismatch ... Ramsey lobbies to shadow Chase

Rookie study

Ernest Jones, ILB, Rams

The early returns on the Rams' 2021 draft class accept been disappointing, but the role player who has received the nigh snaps is Jones. Despite suffering an talocrural joint injury in Week xvi, Jones has been productive in spots. The tertiary-rounder had 61 tackles and two interceptions during the regular season. -- Jordan Reid, NFL typhoon analyst

Jackson Carman, Grand, Bengals

Chase was likewise obvious, and so I'll highlight Carman, the Bengals' rookie right baby-sit. He will take a massive job in trying to keep Burrow clean while blocking Donald and the rest of the Rams' interior defensive front. Carman, a second-round pick in 2021, played in all 17 games this season and had an 87.7% pass block win rate. -- Jordan Reid

How to bet Super Bowl LVI

Current line from Caesars Sportsbook: Rams -iii.5 (48.5)
PickCenter | What to know

Full passing yards for Stafford: Over/nether 280.5
Total passing yards for Burrow: Over/under 276.5
Total sacks past both teams: Over/nether five.0
Total touchdowns in the game: Over/under 5.5

Teams that take covered the spread in the Super Bowl accept won the game outright in each of the past 12 Super Bowls, including last year, when the underdog Buccaneers won as a 3-signal underdog. In Super Bowl history, favorites are 27-26-2 straight up. Super Bowl underdogs of at least 3.5 points are six-0 against the spread and 5-1 outright since 2007. The Bengals were 125-1 to win the Super Bowl entering the flavour, making them simply the second squad 100-1 or longer to reach it in the by 40 seasons (the 1999 St. Louis Rams were 150-1).

Looking at the over/under, the past 3 Super Bowls fell short of the total, the longest under streak since 4 straight from 2004 to 2007. All time, it's 26 overs to 27 unders and a push (in that location was no total in Super Basin I). -- David Bearman, ESPN Chalk

Read more: Best bets ... Berry's Dear/Hate for betting the Super Basin ... Well-nigh pop bets ... The props playbook ... Best histrion props ... Biggest bets ... Betting nuggets ... The unlikely play that can swing millions ... Nearly heavily bet game e'er? ... Printable prop bet scorecard

Who is in, and who is out?

Injury reports: Rams | Bengals

Coach Sean McVay did not paint an optimistic picture of Tyler Higbee's status when he said Mon that he doesn't think the team's No. i tight end will practice this calendar week. Higbee was listed equally a non-participant all final calendar week because of the MCL sprain he suffered in the NFC Title Game. (Update: Higbee will non play.) Safety Taylor Rapp, who has missed all three of the Rams' playoff games, appears to exist on rails to render from the concussion he suffered in Week 18. -- Henderson

Coach Zac Taylor remained hopeful that tight terminate C.J. Uzomah will be able to play against the Rams. Uzomah has been dealing with a sprained MCL in his left knee that he suffered in the AFC Title Game confronting Kansas City. He hasn't practiced, so even if he does play, he might be available in only a limited capacity. (Update: Uzomah will play.) -- Baby

Read more: Uzomah (genu) to play ... Forest enjoying playoff run despite injury ... Higbee (knee) out of Super Basin

Meet the coaches

Sean McVay, Rams

McVay has the unique ability to be relatable and still hold people answerable. What he has done with Von Miller, Odell Beckham Jr. and Jalen Ramsey is remarkable. Getting them to buy in is a strength multiplier and will let the Rams to remain competitive for years to come. McVay has 61 career wins (including playoffs), which is the tertiary most by a charabanc in his starting time v seasons. And he could surpass Mike Tomlin as the youngest double-decker to win a Super Bowl (36), per ESPN Stats & Data inquiry. -- Mike Tannenbaum, NFL analyst

Zac Taylor, Bengals

Taylor spent 2 seasons as an assistant under McVay. I also worked with him in Miami, and he's a smart problem-solver who has tremendous drive and competitiveness. The stage won't be likewise big on Sunday, but he will have to continue to evolve as a strategist with the battles in the trenches. Taylor could be the second-youngest coach ever to win a Super Bowl (38), per ESPN Stats & Data research. -- Tannenbaum

Read more: McVay, Taylor ready for reunion on biggest stage

How the Rams, Bengals got here

The Rams went 12-v this season and won the NFC Westward. They started the yr 7-1, but November was rough for the Rams, as they lost three in a row. A Week thirteen matchup with the Jaguars got them dorsum on track for the showtime of 5 straight wins, including a large one over division-foe Arizona. In the playoffs, the Rams got the Cardinals for a third fourth dimension, chirapsia them 34-11 in the wild-card round. A thirty-27 win over the Buccaneers in the divisional round got them to the NFC championship, where they beat the 49ers in overtime, 20-17. They are now seeking to bring together last season's Buccaneers as the but teams to win a Super Basin in their home stadium, and they could become 3rd franchise (Raiders, Colts) to win Super Bowls for multiple cities afterwards winning ane in 1999 while still in St. Louis. -- ESPN

The 10-7 Bengals were AFC North champs. Cincinnati hit its Calendar week 10 bye at 5-four, but its 6-i record (including playoffs) since Calendar week 15 tied the Bengals with the Rams for all-time record in the NFL over that bridge. That includes an impressive mail service-Christmas 2-game stint in which they crush the Ravens and Chiefs behind 971 passing yards from Burrow. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, Cincinnati has five wins this flavour in which the game-winning score came on the concluding play, including playoffs -- tied for the second-about such wins in a season since the 1970 merger. The Bengals saw overtime 4 times, and all three postseason wins accept been one-score games. Cincinnati beat the Raiders 26-19 in the wild-card round, edged the Titans xix-16 in the bounded round and came from behind to beat out the Chiefs 27-24 in the AFC championship. -- ESPN

Lookout man: Turning Indicate

What to know about the officiating

There's reason to project a minimum of flags in this game. The Bengals and Rams committed the fewest and third-fewest penalties, respectively, during the regular season. In 6 postseason games, the teams have been flagged a full of 31 times. And referee Ron Torbert'due south regular-flavour crew threw the fourth-fewest flags (12.three per game), and his mixed crew threw 10 flags in the divisional-round game between the 49ers and Packers. Notwithstanding, referees are by and large responsible for roughing the passer and offensive holding calls, and Torbert finished the regular season tied for the fourth-virtually roughing the passer flags (11) and fifth-almost flags for offensive holding (56). -- Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer

Read more: Torbert to serve as lead Super Bowl referee

Who is playing the halftime show?

Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Eminem, Mary J. Blige and Kendrick Lamar will perform at the Pepsi Super Bowl LVI Halftime Show.

— NFL (@NFL) January 20, 2022

More preview must-reads

Nonetheless hungry for more Super Basin content? Check out some more of our best stuff from the by two weeks.

Rams

Legwold: Miller gets a adventure for 'another biggest moment'
Henderson: Whitworth excited to face former Bengals team
Henderson: Donald condign a more vocal leader for Rams
Henderson: Demoff says team has work to do in Los Angeles market
Wagoner: Rams' Super Basin runs revolve around receiver
Thiry: Kupp credits married woman's inspiration for superstar turn

Bengals

Baby: How Burrow and Chase formed their unstoppable connection
Baby: Bengals' knack for timely turnovers fueling Super Bowl run
Pryor: How McPherson became 'Coin Mac'
Baby: Bengals prepping with indoor practice
Willis: The final time the Bengals were in the Super Bowl ...
Wright: Ickey Shuffle is dorsum

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Source: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33245728/rams-bengals-super-bowl-score-predictions-prop-bets-matchup-keys-kickoff-mvp-picks-betting-advice-more